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TFWeather LabTRACKFORMER RESEARCH
Bar chartsTIP forecast & pressureFour typhoonsLive forecastHistory
Research use · not warnings
Forecast laboratory / 1979

Typhoon TIP.

The predicted route. The pressure behind it.

TrackFormer: one clean forecast · V40: deterministic · DeepMind: 1
ISSUED 12 Oct 1979 · 00 UTCHORIZON +0 to +120 hoursINPUTS Past & present only

Physical model-generated pressure fields · 1.2.82-R2 E1 is a preliminary two-member candidate trained through +24h; v1.2.48 Small E12 and Large E3 are fixed single saved replays.

Forecast type
one clean forecast · Shared with benchmark charts. Newer candidates use 2 members, not 50.
Observed analysis1979-10-12 00:00 UTC
Analysis+60h+120h
01 / Route comparison

Forecast route

+0h
1.2.82-R2 E1 +0h · 875.00 hPa issue-time central pressureSteeringFlow V40 · traditional route + pressure map +0h · 875.00 hPa issue-time central pressureDeepMind · 1-member reference +0h · 875.00 hPa issue-time central pressure124°E142°E29°12°
Observed1.2.82-R2 E1SteeringFlow V40 · traditional route + pressure mapDeepMind · 1-member reference

White dashed: observed · Solid: TrackFormer clean one-forecast passes · v1.2.48 replays are fixed single saved forecasts in either mode · SteeringFlow V40: deterministic V39 route blend with aligned V10 pressure maps · Dashed DeepMind: 1-member reference · Dots: selected lead

02 / Model sea-level pressure

1.2.82-R2 E1

+0h
982 hPa · intermediate model isobar984 hPa · major model isobar986 hPa · intermediate model isobar988 hPa · major model isobar990 hPa · intermediate model isobar992 hPa · major model isobar994 hPa · intermediate model isobar994 hPa · intermediate model isobar996 hPa · major model isobar996 hPa · major model isobar996 hPa · major model isobar998 hPa · intermediate model isobar998 hPa · intermediate model isobar998 hPa · intermediate model isobar1000 hPa · major model isobar1000 hPa · major model isobar1000 hPa · major model isobar1002 hPa · intermediate model isobar1002 hPa · intermediate model isobar1002 hPa · intermediate model isobar1004 hPa · major model isobar1004 hPa · major model isobar1004 hPa · major model isobar1006 hPa · intermediate model isobar1006 hPa · intermediate model isobar1006 hPa · intermediate model isobar1006 hPa · intermediate model isobar1008 hPa · major model isobar1008 hPa · major model isobar1008 hPa · major model isobar1008 hPa · major model isobar1010 hPa · intermediate model isobar1010 hPa · intermediate model isobar1010 hPa · intermediate model isobar1010 hPa · intermediate model isobar1010 hPa · intermediate model isobar1010 hPa · intermediate model isobar1010 hPa · intermediate model isobar1012 hPa · major model isobar1012 hPa · major model isobar1012 hPa · major model isobar1012 hPa · major model isobar1012 hPa · major model isobar1012 hPa · major model isobar1014 hPa · intermediate model isobar1014 hPa · intermediate model isobar1014 hPa · intermediate model isobar1014 hPa · intermediate model isobar1016 hPa · major model isobar1016 hPa · major model isobar1016 hPa · major model isobar1016 hPa · major model isobar1016 hPa · major model isobar1018 hPa · intermediate model isobar1018 hPa · intermediate model isobar1018 hPa · intermediate model isobar1018 hPa · intermediate model isobar1018 hPa · intermediate model isobar1020 hPa · major model isobar1020 hPa · major model isobar1020 hPa · major model isobar1020 hPa · major model isobar1020 hPa · major model isobar1020 hPa · major model isobar1022 hPa · intermediate model isobar1022 hPa · intermediate model isobar1022 hPa · intermediate model isobar1022 hPa · intermediate model isobar1022 hPa · intermediate model isobar1024 hPa · major model isobar1024 hPa · major model isobar1024 hPa · major model isobar1026 hPa · intermediate model isobar1026 hPa · intermediate model isobar1026 hPa · intermediate model isobar9889921000100010001004100410081008100810121012101210121016101610161016101610201020102010201024102410241.2.82-R2 E1 +0h · 875.00 hPa issue-time central pressure100°E180°E60°0°
90093597010051040

hPa · Fixed scale · 2 hPa isobars · bold and labeled every 4 hPa · 2.5° model broad-scale field · Issue-time analysis Interpolated contours preserve the saved grid resolution.

Pressure model
1.2.82-R2 E1
Issue-time center pressure · selected field
875.00 hPa
Analysis field range
980.4–1027.7 hPa
Route overlays 3 selected / 24 available
Route comparison

22 TrackFormer checkpoints + deterministic algorithm + DeepMind reference. Choose overlays; the pressure selection is independent.

How these forecasts were produced

Mean forecast TrackFormer routes and central pressure average member-derived tracks and pressures. 1.2.78 E2, 1.2.79 E1/E2, 1.2.80 E1 and 1.2.82-R2 E1 use two distinct latent members; these are not 50-member results. Most older checkpoints use saved 50-member means. v1.2.48 Small E12 and Large E3 are individual archived forecasts, not ensembles; the mean/single switch leaves those saved runs unchanged. Fields are averaged on the same grid only for actual ensembles. The minimum of a mean map need not equal mean member central pressure. +0 is analysis, not a forecast.

One clean forecast The clean option is a saved unperturbed zero-latent pass where available. v1.2.48 entries are stored single causal replays from the named-case archive, not freshly rerun live forecasts.

Traditional forecast SteeringFlow V40 uses a deterministic V39 route blend and transports the V10 pressure map onto that route; central pressure is sampled from the displayed map. It is not a stochastic ensemble or a full weather model.

DeepMind and interpretation WeatherNext Cyclones Mini is a fixed one-member reference. TIP’s ten overlapping starts are a historical diagnostic, not proof of no overfitting. The 1979 v1.2.48 replay uses a later-trained checkpoint and is not evidence of operational skill or independent generalization.

Forecast provenance

Checkpoint: 1.2.82-R2 E1 · 1 forecast. Saved clean, zero-latent pass; model-produced field and route. E1 trained through +24h; saved autoregressive forecasts continue to +120h. Two-member results are provisional, not 50-member means.

Checkpoint SHA-256: 4bfec19806bda8ee16702958ccbbcee76b9ef9eda243d1908836ca640b2f4e1a
Prediction artifact SHA-256: ba3ecb7f9932ae37ffd781e6e47be0f05f02ad80dfa084f74874376dc3c5b744