{ "status": "complete_verified", "created_at_utc": "2026-09-30T20:03:17.229500+00:00", "cohort_storms": 270, "cohort_daily_issues": 1473, "eligible_intensity_daily_issues": 134, "excluded_missing_current_intensity": 1339, "protocol_sha256": "596e1bc74ea7cb023d54bc4356c919898d8336460cb66e98b337b8f91c5b211c", "runner_report_sha256": "8e00bc83626c808313343af9ee0cafe0b45021ac605a31c09ede710bc78ee9a2", "postprocessor_sha256": "42fd80254484ac1d390aa2830ab5fdaef1895d3dacdf74ddf23d4aba6c553215", "curve_protocol": { "version": "unshifted-six-hour-intensity-curves-v1", "minimum_curve_points": 6, "shape_error": "(1 - centred cosine similarity) / 2; exact common UTC leads; remove mean and scalar magnitude, preserve time order and sign; no lag optimization, time warping, shift or fit; flat truth or either flat model makes both shape scores unavailable.", "trend_error": "Fraction of adjacent exact six-hour changes with a different sign, including flat vs non-flat. Sign deadband = 0 (strict native changes); no joining across missing leads.", "tendency_mae": "MAE of predicted minus observed adjacent six-hour changes, in kt/6h, hPa/6h or km/6h.", "aggregation": "Paired common lead mask -> daily issue mean -> mean of days per storm -> equal storm weights, same as track. Radius quadrants are averaged within the daily issue; no pooling long-lived storms or quadrant counts across storms.", "radius": "Native 1.1 RMW and NE/SE/SW/NW R34/R50/R64 kilometre outputs versus exact USA reports in nautical miles * 1.852; radii, not diameters. No native 1.2 radius head: do not score experimental pressure radii as a calibrated official equivalent. 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0.765625 } }, { "storm_id": "2024298N13150", "daily_issues": 3, "models": { "1.1": 0.45949074074074076 } }, { "storm_id": "2024307N06143", "daily_issues": 5, "models": { "1.1": 0.571420083184789 } }, { "storm_id": "2024312N14145", "daily_issues": 2, "models": { "1.1": 0.6875 } }, { "storm_id": "2024313N10169", "daily_issues": 5, "models": { "1.1": 0.7 } }, { "storm_id": "2024314N07151", "daily_issues": 1, "models": { "1.1": 0.6875 } } ] }, "tendency_mae": { "valid_storms": 12, "valid_daily_issues": 45, "models": { "1.1": { "equal_storm_mean": 12.453859359491497, "bootstrap_95_percent_interval": [ 9.20430184654228, 16.751276289506805 ] } }, "storm_scores": [ { "storm_id": "2024141N03142", "daily_issues": 7, "models": { "1.1": 6.543319444444444 } }, { "storm_id": "2024201N12133", "daily_issues": 3, "models": { "1.1": 14.29559523809524 } }, { "storm_id": "2024225N22135", "daily_issues": 4, "models": { "1.1": 11.184461805555555 } }, { "storm_id": "2024233N15148", "daily_issues": 6, "models": { "1.1": 8.132794868326117 } }, { "storm_id": "2024244N09137", "daily_issues": 4, "models": { "1.1": 12.619710050366301 } }, { "storm_id": "2024253N11148", "daily_issues": 4, "models": { "1.1": 9.197562500000002 } }, { "storm_id": "2024270N24128", "daily_issues": 1, "models": { "1.1": 10.628750000000002 } }, { "storm_id": "2024298N13150", "daily_issues": 3, "models": { "1.1": 33.14983796296296 } }, { "storm_id": "2024307N06143", "daily_issues": 5, "models": { "1.1": 9.508217944147358 } }, { "storm_id": "2024312N14145", "daily_issues": 2, "models": { "1.1": 18.5296875 } }, { "storm_id": "2024313N10169", "daily_issues": 5, "models": { "1.1": 9.21575 } }, { "storm_id": "2024314N07151", "daily_issues": 1, "models": { "1.1": 6.4406250000000025 } } ] } } }, "native_1_2_radius": { "status": "unavailable", "reason": "No native radius head; not zero error." }, "limits": [ "Development comparison, not an unused holdout: older storms overlap original 1.1 training; the later 1.2 fitting period makes earlier hindcasts retrospective. Pipelines differ.", "1.1 nominal one-minute output versus 1.2 auxiliary scalar against USA_WIND. Not a calibrated surface-wind or architecture-ablation claim. JMA 10-minute wind is not converted or pooled.", "No matched native 1.2 radius head. No radius MAE or radius-skill ranking is claimed.", "Temporal shape ignores level and amplitude. Read it with MAE and unshifted timelines.", "Curve metric protocol is a separately versioned post-hoc descriptive addition, not a preregistered untouched-test hypothesis. No selection or fitting on forecast errors." ] }