Lower is better
Intensity · central pressure
JMA central-pressure MAE · hPa
Released models / daily development benchmark
1.1 vs 1.2.
Pressure-based intensity. Track position. Track direction.
Complete & verified1.2: real mean of 50
1,473 daily forecasts · 270 equally weighted stormsOne typhoon-day = one case. Lead errors → daily score → storm score.
+6 to +120 hours · 50-member meanSame cases, valid times and common label masks within each comparison.
Track uses all 1,473 starts / 270 storms; pressure uses 134 matched starts / 40 storms. The other 1,339 starts lack the frozen 1.1 intensity inputs, not zero error. DeepMind Mini has not run on this daily cohort. Development evidence, not an untouched test.
Lower is better
Track · position
Mean position error · km
Lower is better
Track · direction
Six-hour heading error · degrees
1.1 · frozen native ensemble1.2 · 50 distinct input-perturbed membersDeepMind Mini · not evaluated here, not zero
The mean JMA pressure error is slightly lower for 1.2, but its paired 95% whole-storm interval [-2.68, 1.20] hPa includes zero. No universal intensity improvement is established.
Example · pressure through time
2024141N03142 · issue 2024-05-22 00:00 UTC. All 134 matched starts are selectable; the first example is not cherry-picked.
● JMA best track● Trackformer 1.1● Trackformer 1.2 · mean of 50
- Observed · JMA
- Unavailable Verification only
- Trackformer 1.1
- 1,005.57 hPa Reference unavailable
- Trackformer 1.2 · mean of 50
- 1,000.25 hPa Reference unavailable
Same physical hPa scale and exact valid UTC; no shifting or stretching. Reference gaps stay unavailable, not zero. Hover the graph or move the slider to inspect each time.
All 20 forecast times · observed, 1.1 and 1.2 values
| Lead / valid UTC | Observed JMA | 1.1 | 1.2 · mean of 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| +6h2024-05-22 06:00 UTC | Unavailable | 1,005.57 hPa | 1,000.25 hPa |
| +12h2024-05-22 12:00 UTC | Unavailable | 1,007.00 hPa | 999.96 hPa |
| +18h2024-05-22 18:00 UTC | Unavailable | 1,007.40 hPa | 999.77 hPa |
| +24h2024-05-23 00:00 UTC | Unavailable | 1,007.08 hPa | 999.97 hPa |
| +30h2024-05-23 06:00 UTC | Unavailable | 1,006.35 hPa | 999.16 hPa |
| +36h2024-05-23 12:00 UTC | Unavailable | 1,005.47 hPa | 998.19 hPa |
| +42h2024-05-23 18:00 UTC | 1,004.00 hPa | 1,004.47 hPa | 996.20 hPa |
| +48h2024-05-24 00:00 UTC | 1,006.00 hPa | 1,003.20 hPa | 992.93 hPa |
| +54h2024-05-24 06:00 UTC | 1,004.00 hPa | 1,001.87 hPa | 989.02 hPa |
| +60h2024-05-24 12:00 UTC | 1,006.00 hPa | 1,000.60 hPa | 984.68 hPa |
| +66h2024-05-24 18:00 UTC | 1,004.00 hPa | 999.30 hPa | 981.35 hPa |
| +72h2024-05-25 00:00 UTC | 1,006.00 hPa | 997.62 hPa | 978.94 hPa |
| +78h2024-05-25 06:00 UTC | 1,004.00 hPa | 996.08 hPa | 978.35 hPa |
| +84h2024-05-25 12:00 UTC | 1,002.00 hPa | 994.54 hPa | 977.83 hPa |
| +90h2024-05-25 18:00 UTC | 998.00 hPa | 993.49 hPa | 977.34 hPa |
| +96h2024-05-26 00:00 UTC | 994.00 hPa | 992.52 hPa | 977.05 hPa |
| +102h2024-05-26 06:00 UTC | 990.00 hPa | 991.79 hPa | 976.80 hPa |
| +108h2024-05-26 12:00 UTC | 980.00 hPa | 990.99 hPa | 976.68 hPa |
| +114h2024-05-26 18:00 UTC | 975.00 hPa | 990.50 hPa | 976.74 hPa |
| +120h2024-05-27 00:00 UTC | 970.00 hPa | 990.81 hPa | 976.65 hPa |
Other verified measures, lead curves & source data
| Measure | 1.1 | 1.2 | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| JMA pressure-curve similaritysimilarity · higher is better | 0.7074 | 0.7118 | 134 starts / 40 storms |
| USA pressure-curve similaritysimilarity · higher is better | 0.7237 | 0.6637 | 131 starts / 40 storms |
| Mean track errorkm · lower is better | 798.4 | 471.2 | 1473 starts / 270 storms |
| +120 h track errorkm · lower is better | 1,646.4 | 1,031.6 | 1473 starts / 270 storms |
| Six-hour direction errordegrees · lower is better | 51.58 | 34.96 | 1473 starts / 270 storms |
| Centred route-shape similaritysimilarity · higher is better | 0.7544 | 0.8837 | 1473 starts / 270 storms |
| Geographic path similaritysimilarity · higher is better | 0.5345 | 0.6560 | 1473 starts / 270 storms |
| Frechet path distancekm · lower is better | 1,658.1 | 1,045.8 | 1473 starts / 270 storms |
| JMA central-pressure MAEhPa · lower is better | 13.53 | 12.84 | 134 starts / 40 storms |
| USA central-pressure MAEhPa · lower is better | 12.84 | 12.55 | 134 starts / 40 storms |
Pressure error by forecast lead · JMA
● Trackformer 1.1● Trackformer 1.2 · mean of 50
Track position error by forecast lead
● Trackformer 1.1● Trackformer 1.2 · mean of 50
All 1,473 original forecast hashes and equal-storm route scores were reproduced. All 134 actual 50-member intensity replays passed their original-pressure and member/hash checks. No weights, forecasts or calibration were changed.
Daily plan SHA-256 965184f1e5ab3fcb52e304f39b38583a14f753870aa2295f2d01942a441dcfd6
1.2 source checkpoint SHA-256 f194a23d3f91ea76ad776dfad942fabd669eeae8b3fd665815463095367e9ee0
Wind/radius diagnostics remain in the report, not the main charts. Basin-wide pressure-field error is a separate 1.2-only diagnostic (2.72 hPa); no missing 1.1 field score is fabricated. Curve-similarity diagnostics remove mean and amplitude; the actual hPa examples above do not.
Development archive Earlier checkpoints, regional cohorts, TIP and training diagnostics
Forecast laboratory / 1979
TrackFormer: one clean forecast · V40: deterministic · DeepMind: 1Typhoon TIP.
The predicted route. The pressure behind it.
ISSUED 12 Oct 1979 · 00 UTCHORIZON +0 to +120 hoursINPUTS Past & present only
Physical model-generated pressure fields · 1.2.82-R2 E1 is a preliminary two-member candidate trained through +24h; v1.2.48 Small E12 and Large E3 are fixed single saved replays.
Observed analysis1979-10-12 00:00 UTC
Analysis+60h+120h
01 / Route comparison
+0hForecast route
Observed1.2.82-R2 E1SteeringFlow V40 · traditional route + pressure mapDeepMind · 1-member reference
White dashed: observed · Solid: TrackFormer clean one-forecast passes · v1.2.48 replays are fixed single saved forecasts in either mode · SteeringFlow V40: deterministic V39 route blend with aligned V10 pressure maps · Dashed DeepMind: 1-member reference · Dots: selected lead
02 / Model sea-level pressure
+0h1.2.82-R2 E1
90093597010051040
hPa · Fixed scale · 2 hPa isobars · bold and labeled every 4 hPa · 2.5° model broad-scale field · Issue-time analysis Interpolated contours preserve the saved grid resolution.
- Pressure model
- 1.2.82-R2 E1
- Issue-time center pressure · selected field
- 875.00 hPa
- Analysis field range
- 980.4–1027.7 hPa
Route overlays 3 selected / 24 available
Route comparison
22 TrackFormer checkpoints + deterministic algorithm + DeepMind reference. Choose overlays; the pressure selection is independent.
How these forecasts were produced
Mean forecast TrackFormer routes and central pressure average member-derived tracks and pressures. 1.2.78 E2, 1.2.79 E1/E2, 1.2.80 E1 and 1.2.82-R2 E1 use two distinct latent members; these are not 50-member results. Most older checkpoints use saved 50-member means. v1.2.48 Small E12 and Large E3 are individual archived forecasts, not ensembles; the mean/single switch leaves those saved runs unchanged. Fields are averaged on the same grid only for actual ensembles. The minimum of a mean map need not equal mean member central pressure. +0 is analysis, not a forecast.
One clean forecast The clean option is a saved unperturbed zero-latent pass where available. v1.2.48 entries are stored single causal replays from the named-case archive, not freshly rerun live forecasts.
Traditional forecast SteeringFlow V40 uses a deterministic V39 route blend and transports the V10 pressure map onto that route; central pressure is sampled from the displayed map. It is not a stochastic ensemble or a full weather model.
DeepMind and interpretation WeatherNext Cyclones Mini is a fixed one-member reference. TIP’s ten overlapping starts are a historical diagnostic, not proof of no overfitting. The 1979 v1.2.48 replay uses a later-trained checkpoint and is not evidence of operational skill or independent generalization.
Forecast provenance
Checkpoint: 1.2.82-R2 E1 · 1 forecast. Saved clean, zero-latent pass; model-produced field and route. E1 trained through +24h; saved autoregressive forecasts continue to +120h. Two-member results are provisional, not 50-member means.
Checkpoint SHA-256: 4bfec19806bda8ee16702958ccbbcee76b9ef9eda243d1908836ca640b2f4e1a
Prediction artifact SHA-256: ba3ecb7f9932ae37ffd781e6e47be0f05f02ad80dfa084f74874376dc3c5b744Four-storm forecast laboratory
4 storms · 1 traditional modelFour typhoons.
Compare observed routes with saved TrackFormer forecasts and SteeringFlow V40.
Released Trackformer 1.2 · live forecast
Latest 1.2 forecast
50-member mean · hourly cloud checks for new JMA analyses · page follows new forecasts every minute
Reading the latest complete released-model run…
Other forecast models and earlier live archives
LIVE WEATHER · WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
Research view · not warningsCurrent forecast & pressure
The site precomputes supported models twice daily from current causal GFS analyses and refreshes this view every 30 minutes. Model selection switches among completed forecasts for the selected issue.
No active JMA typhoonNo current advisory available.Saved model initialization: Unknown. JMA’s full route stays visible at every playback lead.
Auto-refresh · 30 minISSUE ARCHIVENo archived hosted issues yetArchived outputs are separate from the live-model selector; opening one replays only that issue’s completed results.
STORM HISTORY / TRACKFORMER 1.2
Follow the storm. Compare the forecast.
Map playback, original issue times, and observed tracks on the same coordinates.
LEGENDObserved / best track1.2 original forecast2 hPa lines · bold 4 hPaCoarse basin only; core not exported for this issue. No pressure scalar insertion or route shift.
Select a storm and an available issueIssue time · +0 h
OBSERVED ARCHIVE13,588 records
1.2 SAVED ISSUES— forecasts
1.2 FORECAST COVERAGE— storm records
HORIZON+6 to +120 h
Checking hosted backfill status; previously verified forecasts remain available.
Moving-core field recovery: a separate verified cloud backfill is being prepared. Original routes, core pressure numbers and basin fields are preserved. Until a core is exported, the map explicitly shows coarse basin pressure only. Core-field status ↗
Learned wind recovery: joining the same bounded cloud backfill. Each verified export enables this issue’s +6…+120 h wind graph automatically. Missing and outside-domain wind remains unavailable. Wind averaging period is unvalidated. Wind recovery status ↗
Cloud live checks run hourly at :17; the catalogue refreshes every five minutes. New forecasts require new valid JMA analyses; scheduler and source delays are possible. Western Pacific only. Older observed records remain in the full archive. Live job status ↗ · Coverage & exclusions ↗
Observed wind-radius details · agencies, quadrants & units
Storm size
Wind radii
No radius report at this observation.
The source has no wind-radius reports for this storm. Missing does not mean zero.
These are observations at the selected valid time, not Trackformer 1.2 predictions.
Coverage, model identity & data access
Interface adapted from your GitHub Pages typhoon explorer. No 1.1 output is relabelled 1.2. This is a research visualization, not an operational warning service.